In Alaska’s frozen frontier, power is not optional, but critical for survival. At Eielson Air Force Base, where resilience is mission-critical, nuclear energy is emerging as the dependable, clean solution, immune to fuel disruptions and extreme weather conditions. As the U.S. military explores energy solutions fit for the 21st century, nuclear microreactors are fast becoming a key strategic asset. And that’s exactly where Oklo (OKLO) steps in.

The California-based startup now stands at the edge of its biggest breakthrough yet. The company was recently issued a Notice of Intent to Award (NOITA) by the Defense Logistics Agency Energy (DLA Energy), on behalf of the Department of the Air Force (DAF) and the U.S. Department of Defense. 

The potential deal would see Oklo deploy a 5 MW Aurora microreactor at Alaska’s Eielson Air Force Base. That’s tiny compared to traditional reactors, but purpose-built for isolated operations. If finalized, Oklo would design, own, and operate a pilot reactor delivering both electricity and heat to the base.

The stock jumped on the news, but with regulatory hurdles still in play, should investors bet on the nuclear stock now? 

About Oklo Stock

Founded in 2013 by MIT grads Jacob DeWitte and Caroline Cochran, Oklo (OKLO) builds compact, fast reactors designed for rapid deployment. It aims to make nuclear energy scalable, flexible, and fit for the modern grid. Its market cap stands at $8.5 billion.

Since going public, shares of the nuclear energy firm have surged 452%, up a whopping 490% over the past 52 weeks. In May alone, OKLO rose over 120%, fueled by pro-nuclear executive orders, global momentum around clean atomic energy, and Oklo’s better-than-expected Q1 results.

Shares are up 13.7% in the past month powered by an upbeat analyst outlook and a new military contract, which pushed the stock higher by 30% on June 11. That renewed confidence sent investors scrambling, pushing Oklo’s shares to an all-time high of $73.55 on June 16. 

Oklo Shows Financial Discipline with Shrinking Q1 Losses

Oklo’s first-quarter results on May 13 gave investors something to cheer about, with shares jumping over 15% the next day, signaling progress beneath the surface. The nuclear startup, still pre-revenue, posted a net loss of $0.07 per share, narrowing its deficit from a year ago and beating analysts’ expectations of a $0.11-per-share loss.

Yet operating losses widened to $17.9 million, driven by a sharp rise in R&D costs, which more than doubled to $7.8 million, and general and administrative expenses, which climbed to $10 million. Plus, the company burned $12.6 million in free cash flow, used $12.2 million in cash for operating activities, and ended the quarter with a cash reserve of $260.7 million.

Looking ahead, management expects the total 2025 operational spend to be between $65 million and $80 million. Meanwhile, eyes remain on the company’s first Aurora microreactor, which targets a launch at the Idaho National Laboratory by late 2027 or early 2028, pushing Oklo steadily toward commercialization. 

Analysts monitoring Oklo predict the company’s losses to shrink to $0.46 per share in 2025.   

Aurora Could Power Oklo’s Future

Oklo’s selection for Alaska’s Eielson AFB project marks a turning point in its quest to commercialize small modular nuclear reactors. This is not the company’s first military rodeo - an earlier agreement in 2023 was withdrawn after initial plans to build a reactor at Eielson fell apart. But now, the Department of Defense has circled back with renewed confidence, issuing a NOITA that names Oklo as the preferred provider following a competitive process. 

Under the deal, Oklo will deploy its off-grid Aurora microreactor at Eielson, advancing the Air Force’s push for energy-resilient, mission-critical infrastructure.

As Washington pushes to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, and President Donald Trump’s latest executive order accelerates deployment timelines, nuclear energy is being recast as essential infrastructure. Big Tech and AI hyperscalers, like Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN), are already locking in long-term nuclear energy deals to meet soaring energy demands. Oklo, with its compact, off-grid Aurora microreactor, is built for this moment - ready to serve both military and commercial power needs.

What Do Analysts Expect for Oklo Stock?

Wall Street remains upbeat about OKLO’s potential, with a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy.” Of the nine analysts covering the stock, five recommend a “Strong Buy,” one advises a “Moderate Buy,” and the remaining three analysts are playing it safe with a “Hold” rating.

Its average price target of $60.28 implies 9% upside potential, and the Street-high target of $75 suggests a surge of 36% from current levels.

Oklo’s military nod adds serious momentum, but the road ahead remains uncertain. With no Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approval, zero revenue, and unproven technology, the 2028 launch goal for the Aurora reactor plant seems ambitious, especially when even approved peers like NuScale Power (SMR) aim for 2030. For now, Oklo offers potential wrapped in promise, not proof. So, investors should tread carefully - this is high-stakes, high-risk nuclear speculation.